LPL Publications

LPL Publications2019-03-25T10:56:35-05:00

Q2 Earnings: Muddling Through – Weekly Market Commentary 7/15/19

Second quarter earnings season gets rolling this week. Consensus estimates are calling for a modest year-over-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the downshift in U.S. and international economic growth, tariffs, and ongoing trade tensions. Quarterly earnings almost always beat quarter-end consensus estimates—this quarter will likely be the 41st in a row to do that—so we expect a slight year-over-year gain that would continue the stretch of consecutive quarterly earnings gains since the 2016 earnings recession [Figure 1]. Nearly60 companies will report this week (July 15–19). Here we preview second-quarter earnings season and share our outlook for [...]

Taking Stock At The Halfway Mark – Weekly Market Commentary 7/8/19

Even after such a strong first half of this year, we think stocks may have more left in the tank. The S&P 500 Index gained 17.4% during the first half of 2019—an excellent performance—even though a decent chunk of those gains reversed the 2018 fourth quarter losses. Putting that six-month performance into perspective, it was the best start to a year for the stock market since 1997, and its tenth-best start since 1950. This week we recap the first half and analyze prior strong starts to see what we might expect in the second half of 2019.  Read [...]


We expect stocks to move higher over the second half of the year. Stocks already have had quite a run in 2019, buoyed by a return to fundamentals, with the S&P 500 Index up 17.4% year to date through June 28 for an 18.5% total return. The decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pause rate hikes was the catalyst for the reversal, as market participants no longer feared that the Fed might unnecessarily restrict growth. U.S. economic data also have generally supported a continued economic expansion, while businesses continue to find ways to effectively navigate the environment. [...]