LPL Publications

LPL Publications2019-03-25T10:56:35-05:00

Fading Momentum – Weekly Market Commentary 4/22/19

U.S. stocks are sitting at the same levels they were seven months ago, but the path hasn’t been straight. Equity investors have been on a bumpy ride since September 2018, and investors’ resolve has been tested amid back-and-forth in trade negotiations, a historic government shutdown, Brexit, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) U-turn in policy, and signs of a global slowdown. Fortunately, the S&P 500 Index weathered a steep decline late last year and has found its way back around record highs. Stocks’ historically strong start to the year has been promising, but there are still signals that more weakness [...]

What’s Priced In? – Weekly Market Commentary 4/15/19

After such a strong rally for stocks this year, you may be wondering what could drive stocks higher from here. With the S&P 500 Index less than 1% away from its all-time high set September 20, 2018, a lot of good news has been priced into stocks. You may also be wondering what possible disappointments could cause stocks to pull back from here, especially given the soft patch in the U.S. economy and corporate profits during the first quarter. To help us with these questions and in consultation with our friends at Strategas Research Partners, we have taken [...]

Q1 Earnings Preview: Light at the End of the Tunnel – Weekly Market Commentary 4/8/19

First quarter earnings season kicks off this week and the bar seems low. Consensus estimates for first quarter earnings season are calling for a slight yearover-year decline in S&P 500 Index earnings amid the economic soft patch at the start of the year. Marking the one-year anniversary of the tax reform earnings boost, in the first quarter of 2018, has made the annual comparison more difficult, as shown in Figure 1. We expect roughly flat earnings for the quarter, but the streak of seven straight quarters of earnings growth could come to an end. Here we preview the [...]

The Stock Market’s Final Four – Weekly Market Commentary 4/1/19

The NCAA Final Four is set. On the men’s side, Auburn, Michigan State, Texas Tech, and Virginia are headed to Minneapolis to determine this year’s college basketball national champion. On the women’s side, UConn and Oregon punched their tickets over the weekend while the other two spots will be decided tonight—Baylor and Notre Dame are the favorites.  Read entire commentary here:

Movin on Up (in Market Cap) – Weekly Market Commentary 3/18/19

Large caps may be better positioned than small caps, given where we are in the business cycle. Small cap stocks have performed well so far in 2019, with the Russell 2000 Index, the most popular small cap benchmark, up 15.2% year to date compared with the 12.6% gain in the large cap S&P 500 Index. Small caps tend to do better when economic growth expectations improve and stocks broadly rally, which has been the case since late December 2018. However, we believe the environment is getting tougher for small caps, for reasons we discuss below.  Read entire commentary [...]